Thailand Tourism Faces Setback as Middle East Conflict Curtails Israeli and Iranian Visitor Arrivals
Bangkok, Thailand – June 23, 2025
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has issued a cautionary advisory highlighting the severe impact of the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict on inbound tourism, particularly from Israel and Iran. As direct military confrontations erupted on June 13, 2025, the regional instability has triggered serious concerns over visitor safety and international air connectivity, disrupting travel patterns and dampening demand across key Thai destinations including Bangkok and Phuket.
The geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, involving two of Thailand’s growing tourist source markets, is expected to sharply reduce arrivals through the third quarter of 2025. With airlines suspending operations and travelers reconsidering regional trips, Thailand’s tourism recovery trajectory now faces a fresh challenge amid otherwise robust global rebound trends.
Israeli Arrivals Expected to Plunge Up to 29% in Q3
TAT forecasts a significant downturn in Israeli tourist arrivals beginning mid-June and continuing through Q3. Analysts project a decline of up to 29% compared to earlier estimates. The conflict’s direct nature, with Israel actively engaged in military confrontations, has disrupted travel intentions and increased risk perceptions among potential visitors.
Despite this, two forward-looking scenarios have been modeled by TAT:
Scenario 1: Conflict Stabilizes by September
If hostilities subside within the third quarter, Thailand could still welcome around 350,000 Israeli tourists in 2025—a 24% increase over 2024. However, this figure falls short of the original projection of 427,000, which had anticipated a 52% surge due to strong outbound travel trends earlier in the year.
Scenario 2: Conflict Extends Through November
In the event of prolonged hostilities, normal tourism flows would likely resume only in December, reducing the annual Israeli tourist count to 335,000, down by 92,000 from forecasted numbers.
Despite Q3 losses, the overall Israeli arrivals for 2025 are still expected to outpace 2024 due to an impressive 76% year-on-year growth in the first five months of 2025. In essence, early momentum has buffered the impact, offering some hope for recovery in Q4.
Iranian Tourism Faces Steeper and Immediate Decline
In contrast to Israel’s strong start to 2025, tourism from Iran is already showing signs of deterioration. From January to May 2025, only 28,259 Iranian tourists visited Thailand—a modest 2% decline compared to the same period in 2024.
This situation is worsening, with the Iranian airspace closure forcing Mahan Air to suspend its six weekly direct flights to Bangkok and Phuket by the end of June. This eliminates approximately 1,800 weekly seats, cutting off a vital air bridge between the two nations.
TAT warns that this could mirror the 60% plunge in Iranian arrivals witnessed in 2018 following U.S. sanctions on Tehran. The absence of direct flight connectivity will particularly impact tourism between July and December 2025, deepening the decline.
Broader Industry Impact and Strategic Implications
The escalating Middle East conflict introduces wider uncertainty in the global travel ecosystem. For Thailand—a country where tourism contributes approximately 20% to GDP—the disruption could result in financial losses, job cuts, and declining tourism-related revenues.
Flight rerouting, heightened travel advisories, increased insurance costs, and elevated geopolitical anxiety may dissuade tourists beyond the immediate Israel-Iran demographic. This could cascade into broader hesitancy for travel to Asia from adjacent or risk-sensitive markets.
Furthermore, airlines flying through Middle Eastern airspace, including many Asian and European carriers, are facing schedule disruptions and increased operational costs, some of which could be passed on to consumers.
Thailand’s Response: Diversification and Resilience Building
Recognizing the risks, TAT is now encouraging efforts to diversify Thailand’s source markets. The strategy includes targeting emerging segments from India, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and ASEAN nations that remain relatively unaffected by the current conflict.
Government initiatives are also underway to strengthen domestic tourism and reduce dependency on high-risk markets. A renewed push toward sustainable tourism, regional tourism circuit development, and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) travel could offer new buffers against geopolitical uncertainty.
Additionally, Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism is actively working with embassies and airlines to explore alternative routes and partnerships to restore visitor confidence and connectivity when the situation improves.
Conclusion
Thailand’s tourism industry, while resilient and adaptive, is now navigating yet another external shock. The Iran–Israel conflict has created immediate disruptions, with Israeli arrivals expected to drop sharply and Iranian tourism facing a near standstill. While early-year growth in Israeli arrivals has somewhat cushioned the blow, the prolonged nature of the conflict may still lead to substantial economic losses.
In this evolving landscape, Thailand’s ability to pivot quickly, diversify its market base, and respond to changing travel dynamics will be key to maintaining growth momentum through the rest of 2025.
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