International tourism is still moving forward in 2026, but the pace has become noticeably slower. Around 690 million international tourists travelled between January and June, representing just 0.4% growth compared with the same period last year, according to the latest UN Tourism World Tourism Barometer. The figures underline a more cautious global travel environment as geopolitical uncertainty, expensive air travel and inflation increasingly influence where and when people choose to travel.
The slowdown is particularly significant for the global tourism industry, which had entered 2026 expecting stronger momentum. UN Tourism has now reduced its full-year forecast for international tourist arrivals to 1%-2% growth, compared with its earlier projection of 3%-4%. The revision comes as the Middle East conflict continues to affect aviation connectivity, energy prices and traveller confidence, while higher travel costs put additional pressure on household budgets.
The first half of the year also reveals how uneven the recovery has become. International arrivals increased by 2% during the first quarter but fell 1% in the second quarter. April saw a 3% decline, followed by another 3% fall in June. The June performance was affected by several factors, including a heatwave in Western Europe, weaker demand in Asian markets and disruptions to air travel through the Middle East.
Middle East Conflict Creates Wider Tourism Impact
The Middle East has experienced the sharpest deterioration among the world’s tourism regions. International arrivals to the region fell 22% during the first half of 2026, reflecting the direct impact of the ongoing conflict on travel activity, aviation connectivity and visitor confidence.
The consequences, however, have extended well beyond destinations directly affected by the conflict. Several major Middle Eastern aviation hubs play an important role in connecting Europe, Asia and other international markets. Disruptions to those routes can therefore affect travel itineraries and airline operations far outside the region.
UN Tourism noted that air traffic disruptions began easing during May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire, with some routes reopening. Recovery has nevertheless remained uneven, with traveller sentiment and connectivity continuing to be affected by the wider situation.
Europe and Africa Continue to Record Growth
Despite the broader slowdown, some regions continued to perform relatively strongly during the first half of 2026. Africa recorded 4% growth in international arrivals, while Europe increased by 3%. The Americas also registered 2% growth, although results varied considerably between individual sub-regions.
Europe’s performance provides an important counterpoint to the global slowdown. While the continent experienced a weaker June, partly because of extreme heat in parts of Western Europe, overall arrivals remained above the previous year’s level during the first six months.
Asia-Pacific, meanwhile, recorded 1% growth compared with the first half of 2025 but remained 11% below 2019 levels. UN Tourism pointed to disrupted air connectivity, higher airfares and uncertainty around intra-regional travel as factors continuing to affect the region.
Within Asia-Pacific, North-East Asia recorded 3% growth, while South Asia declined 5% and Southeast Asia fell 1% during the first half.
Rising Costs Change Traveller Behaviour
Affordability has emerged as another important factor shaping international travel in 2026. Higher oil prices, airfares and general inflation are increasing the cost of holidays, encouraging travellers to reconsider long-haul journeys and look more closely at value for money.
UN Tourism expects this behaviour to remain visible through the rest of the year, with travellers potentially favouring destinations closer to home or choosing domestic holidays when international trips become too expensive.
The impact is also being felt by tourism businesses. Higher transportation and energy expenses can increase operating costs for airlines, hotels and other travel providers, potentially influencing prices across the tourism supply chain.
At the same time, the uneven regional performance demonstrates that demand has not disappeared. Instead, travellers are becoming more selective, with destination accessibility, pricing, connectivity and perceived stability playing increasingly important roles in travel decisions.
Global Tourism Outlook for the Rest of 2026
UN Tourism’s revised 1%-2% growth forecast reflects the uncertainty surrounding the remainder of 2026. The organisation has stressed that the outlook will depend partly on how long the Middle East conflict continues and its subsequent impact on oil prices and inflation.
The latest figures therefore point to a tourism sector that is still expanding, but at a much more measured pace than previously expected. For destinations and travel companies, maintaining connectivity, managing costs and responding to changing traveller preferences could become increasingly important as the year progresses.
The global tourism story in 2026 is consequently less about a broad-based surge and more about an industry adapting to a rapidly changing travel landscape. Demand remains present, but travellers are weighing their choices more carefully, while destinations are navigating geopolitical uncertainty, higher costs and shifting travel patterns. The months ahead will show whether improving connectivity and greater stability can help international tourism regain some of the momentum seen earlier in the recovery.
