The United States is facing another challenging year in attracting overseas visitors, with the latest industry forecast pointing to a second consecutive decline in international arrivals. Despite the global travel industry’s continued recovery and the added attention generated by major events, the country is expected to welcome fewer international tourists in 2026 than it did last year. The outlook raises fresh questions about the competitiveness of the US tourism market and its ability to regain momentum among key international source markets.
According to a new forecast from the US Travel Association, the country is projected to receive 67.8 million international visitors in 2026, representing a 0.7% decrease from 2025. This follows a sharper 5.5% fall in visitor numbers last year, as changing travel preferences, political concerns and trade-related tensions influenced decisions among international travellers, particularly Canadians and some Western Europeans. The latest projection is also lower than the association’s July forecast, which had anticipated 69.9 million arrivals.
FIFA World Cup Boost Fails to Reverse the Downward Trend
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was expected to provide a significant opportunity to attract international visitors and strengthen the country’s tourism performance. However, the latest forecast suggests that the tournament’s contribution to inbound arrivals will not be enough to counter the wider decline in international travel.
The United States is also losing ground in the global long-haul travel market. Its share of global long-haul flight arrivals has fallen from 10.3% in 2019 to an estimated 7.7% in 2026. This indicates that the challenge extends beyond a temporary slowdown, with the country facing increasing competition from other destinations seeking to attract international travellers.
The financial impact is expected to be even more pronounced. International visitor spending in the US is forecast to reach $163 billion in 2026, down 6.3%, or approximately $11 billion, from the previous year. After adjusting for inflation, international travel expenditure is projected to remain 25% below its 2019 level.
Canada and Overseas Markets Drive the Decline
The slowdown is not affecting all source markets equally. Overseas arrivals to the United States are projected to decline by 5.2% in 2026, while visits from Canada are expected to fall by another 3.3%. These declines are particularly significant given Canada’s traditional importance as one of the largest international visitor markets for the US.
Mexico, however, is emerging as a positive exception. Visitor arrivals from the country are forecast to increase by 10.3%, offering some support to the broader inbound travel market. The contrasting trends highlight how individual source markets are responding differently to the current travel and economic environment.
US Travel Industry Calls for Policy Support
Geoff Freeman, President and CEO of the US Travel Association, has urged lawmakers to take steps to protect the country’s travel industry and improve its international competitiveness. Among the priorities highlighted are safeguarding the pay of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers and air traffic controllers during government shutdowns, restoring funding for Brand USA and avoiding additional visa fees and entry barriers that could discourage international visitors.
The association has also called for greater investment in air traffic control infrastructure to improve the overall travel experience. These measures are seen as important to maintaining confidence among international travellers while supporting the wider network of businesses and communities that depend on tourism.
International Travel Outlook for 2027
There may be some improvement ahead. The latest forecast anticipates a return to growth in 2027, although the recovery will depend on several factors, including international market sentiment, travel policies and the United States’ ability to remain competitive against other destinations. The US Travel Association’s projections also indicate that international visitor numbers may not return to their 2019 level of 79 million until 2030.
For the US tourism sector, the latest figures are a reminder that hosting major global events alone cannot guarantee stronger visitor numbers. Rebuilding international confidence, improving travel accessibility and maintaining a welcoming environment will be equally important. As destinations worldwide compete for a growing pool of international travellers, the United States will need to address these challenges if it hopes to reverse the current trend and restore its position in the global travel market.
